METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
Las Vegas, USA
15 Aug 2020
Featherweight
VS
53%
III
47%
Kelley
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kai Kamaka IIIwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Tony Kelley · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
III
→
Actual result
III wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — III at 53% vs Kelley at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Kelley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Risk flags
III's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
IIIKelley
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
III
Kelley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
69"
Reach
+70"
31+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
III
Kelley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.9
28.4
31.0
Performance Avg
44.0
25
Quality of Victory
40
40
Momentum Score
69
III
Kelley
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
6.0
/ 10
1.2
Style: Pressure
5.0
8.8
Style: Volume
5.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
29
24
Body
15
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
26Distance30
13Clinch17
0Ground0
III
Kelley
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
III
Kelley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/25 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
III
Kelley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
69
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
III
Kelley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
III
Kelley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
IIIKelley
Strike Zones
III
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedKelley
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯III targets the body (62% of attacks) — Kelley absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Kelley targets the head (62% of attacks) — III absorbs 62% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
III
RND
Kelley
0/0R00/0
III · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Luke RileyKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Dakota HopeDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
Upcoming
Danny ChavezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
TJ BrownDecision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · KO · R2
Jonathan PearceKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
Kelley · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Adrian YanezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
W · KO · R2
Randy CostaKO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Ali AlQaisiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Kai Kamaka IIIDecision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08