UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
Las Vegas, USA
15 Aug 2020
Featherweight
VS
57%
III
43%
Kelley
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: III
This is a genuine toss-up — III at 57% vs Kelley at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kelley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Kelley throws more volume but III connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
III
Kelley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
69"
Reach
+70"
31+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
III
Kelley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.8
28.4
35.0
Performance Avg
44.0
25
Quality of Victory
40
50
Momentum Score
69
III
Kelley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
3.2
61%
Strike Accuracy
51%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
29
24
Body
15
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
26Distance30
13Clinch17
0Ground0
III
Kelley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
III
Kelley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
76
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/25 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
III
Kelley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
69
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
III
Kelley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
III
Kelley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
IIIKelley
Strike Zones
III
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedKelley
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯III targets the body (62% of attacks) — Kelley absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Kelley targets the head (62% of attacks) — III absorbs 62% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
III
RND
Kelley
0/0R00/0
III · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Kelley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
III · Last 5
Upcoming
Luke RileyUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Dakota HopeRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
Upcoming
Danny ChavezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · KO · R2
Jonathan PearceRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
Kelley · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Adrian YanezRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
W · KO · R2
Randy CostaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Ali AlQaisiRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Kai Kamaka IIIRating 5.6Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08