UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Las Vegas, USA
6 Mar 2021
Flyweight
VS
29%
Bontorin
71%
Kara-France
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:55
RB
Rogerio Bontorin
16 – 4
5'5"67" reachOrthodox34 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 21
Kai
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
25 – 12
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'4"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kara-France

Kara-France is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Kara-France has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Kara-France throws more volume but Bontorin connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Kara-France has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Bontorin
Kara-France
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
67"
Reach
+69"
34
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bontorin
Kara-France
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.1
52.5
32.5
Performance Avg
47.5
28
Quality of Victory
38
59
Momentum Score
80
Bontorin
Kara-France
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.0
52%
Strike Accuracy
41%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
8
1
Body
2
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
5Distance11
0Clinch2
1Ground0
Bontorin
Kara-France
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Bontorin
Kara-France
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/20 fights
Chin rating based on
13/37 fights
Bontorin
Kara-France
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
80
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Bontorin
Kara-France
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
38%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bontorin
Kara-France
Striking0.8 / 5.0Volume4.8 / 6.2Grappling1.2 / 1.5Wrestling0.8 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.2 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Bontorin
Strike Zones
Kara-France
Bontorin
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY3LEGS13 absorbed
Kara-France
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY3LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bontorin targets the head (83% of attacks) — Kara-France absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Kara-France targets the head (62% of attacks) — Bontorin absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bontorin
RND
Kara-France
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Bontorin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.0W5.5L2.4L6.3L2019-022019-082020-022021-032022-01
WinLossTrend

Kara-France · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W4.5W4.5W6.4L4.7W3.5L5.0W6.1W4.5W3.6L6.8L5.6W4.0L2018-122020-022022-032025-06
WinLossTrend

Bontorin · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brandon RoyvalRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
Upcoming
Matt Schnell
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kai Kara-FranceRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Ray BorgRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
W · R1
Raulian PaivaRating 4
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08

Kara-France · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 4
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Steve ErcegRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · KO · R3
Brandon MorenoRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Askar AskarovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03

News & Media

Rogerio Bontorin · Kai Kara-France
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