UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
Toronto, Canada
22 Sept 2012
Welterweight
VS
67%
Noke
33%
Brenneman
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:45
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Noke
Noke holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Brenneman has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Noke has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Noke has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Noke's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brenneman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Noke
Brenneman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
70"
46
Age
+45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Noke
Brenneman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
9.7
50.4
Performance Avg
29.5
51
Quality of Victory
25
59
Momentum Score
45
Noke
Brenneman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.5
53%
Strike Accuracy
49%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Noke
Brenneman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Noke
Brenneman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/32 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Noke
Brenneman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Noke
Brenneman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Noke
Brenneman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.1
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
NokeBrenneman
Strike Zones
Noke
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedBrenneman
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Noke targets the head (100% of attacks) — Brenneman absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Noke
RND
Brenneman
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Noke · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Brenneman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
Noke · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Sub · R2
Keita NakamuraRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5Decision
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R1
Peter SobottaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Jonavin WebbRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · 2015-05
Brenneman · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Leandro SilvaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux · 2014-11
L · KO · R2
Danny CastilloRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04
L · Sub · R1
Beneil DariushRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01
L · KO · R1
Kyle NokeRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · 2012-09
L · Sub · R1
Erick SilvaRating 1.5Submission
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06