UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith
Hamburg, Germany
22 Jul 2018
Heavyweight
VS
67%
Tybura
33%
Struve
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tybura
Tybura holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Struve has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Struve has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Struve throws more volume but Tybura connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Tybura's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Struve has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tybura
Struve
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'11"
78"
Reach
+84"
40
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tybura
Struve
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
20.6
45.2
Performance Avg
51.7
37
Quality of Victory
50
58
Momentum Score
98
Tybura
Struve
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.8
53%
Strike Accuracy
52%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
4
0
Body
3
6
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance10
0Clinch0
9Ground0
Tybura
Struve
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.1
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tybura
Struve
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
8
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/38 fights
Chin rating based on
24/46 fights
Tybura
Struve
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
98
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Tybura
Struve
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
85%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
6
9
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tybura
Struve
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.6
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
TyburaStruve
Strike Zones
Tybura
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedStruve
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tybura targets the head (60% of attacks) — Struve absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Struve targets the head (40% of attacks) — Tybura absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tybura
RND
Struve
0/0R00/0
Tybura · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Struve · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Tybura · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tyrell FortuneRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Ante DelijaRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Mick ParkinRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · R2
Jhonata DinizRating 5.1UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
Struve · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tai TuivasaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
L · KO · R2
Ben RothwellRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · Sub · R2
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 5.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2Decision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03