METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
Las Vegas, USA
17 Jun 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
25%
Pauga
75%
Bukauskas
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
20 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak32 yrsSwitch76" reach6'3"
CFR 56
★ Official Result
Modestas BukauskaswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Zac Pauga · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bukauskas
→
Actual result
Bukauskas wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Bukauskas is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Bukauskas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Risk flags
Pauga's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bukauskas has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PaugaBukauskas
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Pauga
Bukauskas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
38
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Pauga
Bukauskas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
55.8
25.0
Performance Avg
51.0
25
Quality of Victory
42
22
Momentum Score
94
Pauga
Bukauskas
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
5.7
/ 10
0.8
Style: Pressure
5.8
8.5
Style: Volume
4.8
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
15
13
Body
5
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
21Distance17
4Clinch3
0Ground0
Pauga
Bukauskas
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pauga
Bukauskas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
10
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/10 fights
Chin rating based on
14/27 fights
Pauga
Bukauskas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
94
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Pauga
Bukauskas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
56%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pauga
Bukauskas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
PaugaBukauskas
Strike Zones
Pauga
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedBukauskas
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pauga targets the body (52% of attacks) — Bukauskas absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Bukauskas targets the head (75% of attacks) — Pauga absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pauga
RND
Bukauskas
0/0R00/0
Pauga · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Bogdan GuskovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Modestas BukauskasDecision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
W · Dec · R3
Jordan WrightDecision
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
L · KO · R2
Mohammed UsmanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
Bukauskas · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Oumar SyKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Christian EdwardsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Nikita KrylovKO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Paul CraigKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaDecision
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