UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
Las Vegas, USA
17 Jun 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
30%
Pauga
70%
Bukauskas
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Bukauskas
Bukauskas is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Bukauskas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Pauga has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pauga's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bukauskas has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pauga
Bukauskas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
38
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Pauga
Bukauskas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.5
51.5
25.0
Performance Avg
49.0
25
Quality of Victory
41
22
Momentum Score
81
Pauga
Bukauskas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.4
61%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
15
13
Body
5
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
21Distance17
4Clinch3
0Ground0
Pauga
Bukauskas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pauga
Bukauskas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
10
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/10 fights
Chin rating based on
13/27 fights
Pauga
Bukauskas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
22
81
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Pauga
Bukauskas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pauga
Bukauskas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
PaugaBukauskas
Strike Zones
Pauga
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedBukauskas
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pauga targets the body (52% of attacks) — Bukauskas absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Bukauskas targets the head (75% of attacks) — Pauga absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pauga
RND
Bukauskas
0/0R00/0
Pauga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Bukauskas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
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L · KO · R1
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