UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero
Hollywood, USA
27 Jun 2015
Welterweight
VS
69%
Ponzinibbio
31%
Larkin
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:07
Santiago
Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
31 – 9
6'0"73" reachOrthodox39 yrsStriker
CFR 46
LL
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
18 – 6
Striker2-fight win streak39 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ponzinibbio

Ponzinibbio holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Larkin has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Ponzinibbio throws more volume but Larkin connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Ponzinibbio's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ponzinibbio
Larkin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
72"
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ponzinibbio
Larkin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.7
20.5
50.5
Performance Avg
47.0
44
Quality of Victory
45
46
Momentum Score
92
Ponzinibbio
Larkin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
50%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
29
4
Body
4
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
18Distance22
1Clinch4
0Ground11
Ponzinibbio
Larkin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ponzinibbio
Larkin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/40 fights
Chin rating based on
10/24 fights
Ponzinibbio
Larkin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
92
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Ponzinibbio
Larkin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
60%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ponzinibbio
Larkin
Striking7.0 / 7.0Volume4.5 / 4.2Grappling1.0 / 1.0Wrestling0.7 / 0.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.9 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
Ponzinibbio
Strike Zones
Larkin
Ponzinibbio
Attacking
12HEAD4BODY3LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD4BODY4LEGS37 absorbed
Larkin
Attacking
29HEAD4BODY4LEGS37 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD4BODY3LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ponzinibbio targets the head (63% of attacks) — Larkin absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Larkin targets the head (78% of attacks) — Ponzinibbio absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ponzinibbio
RND
Larkin
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ponzinibbio · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5L5.0W5.6W2.8L5.0W5.2W4.9W4.5W6.1W4.5W6.0W2.3L5.1W6.5L6.1L5.5W4.6L6.5L6.3W4.9L2013-112016-042018-112022-122025-05
WinLossTrend

Larkin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W5.5L1.5L5.8L5.0W5.8W5.5L4.5W5.6W2013-042014-052015-062016-08
WinLossTrend

Ponzinibbio · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 4.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Carlston HarrisRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Muslim SalikhovRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · KO · R3
Kevin HollandRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
W · KO · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12

Larkin · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
L · Dec · R3
Albert TumenovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R2
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
W · KO · R1
John HowardRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

News & Media

Santiago Ponzinibbio · Lorenz Larkin
← Back to fights