UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
Manchester, United Kingdom
8 Oct 2016
Lightweight
VS
68%
Santos
32%
Martins
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Santos
Santos holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Martins has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Santos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Santos's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Martins has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Santos
Martins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
72"
46
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Santos
Martins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.1
17.1
57.5
Performance Avg
52.0
49
Quality of Victory
49
100
Momentum Score
30
Santos
Martins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
49%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
6
1
Body
3
2
Leg
10
RangeRange
10Distance19
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Santos
Martins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.3
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Santos
Martins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/25 fights
Chin rating based on
7/37 fights
Santos
Martins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
30
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Santos
Martins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
75%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Martins
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
SantosMartins
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedMartins
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (70% of attacks) — Martins absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Martins targets the legs (53% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Martins
0/0R00/0
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Martins · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Santos · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Clay GuidaRating 3.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
L · KO · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman BogatovRating 4.5Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · KO · R1
Stevie RayRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
Martins · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Kajan JohnsonRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Leonardo SantosRating 5.6Decision
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 7KO/TKO
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Rustam KhabilovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
W · KO · R1
Juan Manuel PuigRating 5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07