UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
Goiania, Brazil
30 May 2015
Welterweight
VS
57%
Condit
43%
Alves
Win Probability
CC
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
32 – 14
6'2"75" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 22
TA
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23 – 15
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Condit

This is a genuine toss-up — Condit at 57% vs Alves at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Alves has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Condit's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alves has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Condit
Alves
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
70"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Condit
Alves
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.3
16.5
47.8
Performance Avg
47.3
48
Quality of Victory
42
20
Momentum Score
63
Condit
Alves
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.6
40%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
41
Head
5
9
Body
1
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
25Distance11
4Clinch0
22Ground0
Condit
Alves
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Condit
Alves
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
6
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/46 fights
Chin rating based on
27/38 fights
Condit
Alves
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
63
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Condit
Alves
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
53%
4
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Condit
Alves
Striking5.4 / 5.8Volume4.5 / 4.3Grappling1.1 / 1.5Wrestling0.8 / 1.0Submission0.0 / 0.7Pressure4.5 / 5.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
Condit
Strike Zones
Alves
Condit
Attacking
41HEAD9BODY1LEGS51 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY5LEGS11 absorbed
Alves
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY5LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
41HEAD9BODY1LEGS51 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Condit targets the head (80% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Alves targets the head (45% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 45% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Condit
RND
Alves
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Condit · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W5.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.4W2.8L4.1W5.8L1.5L6.1L2.8L3.5L4.7W4.9W6.1L2009-042012-022015-052018-122021-07
WinLossTrend

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.2W5.2W4.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W4.4L5.9L4.5W2.8L5.5L5.1W5.5L1.6L2005-102007-112011-052017-042019-12
WinLossTrend

Condit · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Matt BrownRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Sub · R2
Alex OliveiraRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04

Alves · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02

News & Media

Carlos Condit · Thiago Alves
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