UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
Minneapolis, USA
5 Oct 2012
Welterweight
VS
91%
Ellenberger
9%
Hieron
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ellenberger
Ellenberger is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ellenberger has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
Ellenberger has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ellenberger's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hieron has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ellenberger
Hieron
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+75"
41+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ellenberger
Hieron
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
1.5
45.7
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
56
Momentum Score
0
Ellenberger
Hieron
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.5
42%
Strike Accuracy
22%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
1
Body
1
3
Leg
6
RangeRange
5Distance8
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Ellenberger
Hieron
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ellenberger
Hieron
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
4/30 fights
Ellenberger
Hieron
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · R3
L · KO · R1
Ellenberger
Hieron
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ellenberger
Hieron
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
EllenbergerHieron
Strike Zones
Ellenberger
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedHieron
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Hieron absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Hieron targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ellenberger
RND
Hieron
0/0R00/0
Ellenberger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Hieron · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Ellenberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
Hieron · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Tyron WoodleyRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02
L · Dec · R3
Jake EllenbergerRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
L · R3
Jonathan GouletRating 5.5UFC Fight Night 2 · 2005-10
L · KO · R1
Georges St-PierreRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 48: Payback · 2004-06