UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
Brooklyn, USA
7 Apr 2018
Lightweight
VS
46%
Dunham
54%
Aubin-Mercier
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:53
ED
Evan Dunham
18 – 9
5'10"70" reachSouthpaw44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
OA
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
11 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'9"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aubin-Mercier

This is a genuine toss-up — Dunham at 46% vs Aubin-Mercier at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Aubin-Mercier has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Striking split: Dunham throws more volume but Aubin-Mercier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Dunham's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Dunham
Aubin-Mercier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
70"
44
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Dunham
Aubin-Mercier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.2
19.4
40.1
Performance Avg
49.0
30
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
61
Dunham
Aubin-Mercier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
0.6
41%
Strike Accuracy
53%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
9
0
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
1Clinch8
0Ground2
Dunham
Aubin-Mercier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dunham
Aubin-Mercier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
90
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/27 fights
Chin rating based on
12/16 fights
Dunham
Aubin-Mercier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
61
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Dunham
Aubin-Mercier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
18%
71%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
4
9
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dunham
Aubin-Mercier
Striking2.0 / 2.6Volume6.9 / 3.5Grappling2.5 / 5.3Wrestling1.7 / 3.7Submission0.9 / 5.7Pressure2.9 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.6
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.7
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Dunham
Strike Zones
Aubin-Mercier
Dunham
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD4BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Aubin-Mercier
Attacking
9HEAD4BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dunham targets the head (100% of attacks) — Aubin-Mercier absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Aubin-Mercier targets the head (69% of attacks) — Dunham absorbs 69% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dunham
RND
Aubin-Mercier
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Dunham · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.0W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.5L1.5L4.5W4.2W5.5L4.5W5.7L2.8L2.0L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.6W1.5L2.8L1.9L2009-022011-012013-052015-122020-06
WinLossTrend

Aubin-Mercier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.2W5.5W4.5W6.5L5.5W6.5W4.5W5.0W6.4L5.7L7.1L2014-042015-082016-122018-072019-07
WinLossTrend

Dunham · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Herbert BurnsRating 1.9
Submission
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · KO · R2
Francisco TrinaldoRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R1
Olivier Aubin-MercierRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
Upcoming
Beneil Dariush
Decision
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Ricky GlennRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09

Aubin-Mercier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09

News & Media

Evan Dunham · Olivier Aubin-Mercier
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