UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
London, United Kingdom
21 Mar 2026
Middleweight
VS
94%
Kondratavicius
6%
Trocoli
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MK
Mantas Kondratavicius
9 – 1
6'2"75" reachOrthodox26 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Antonio
Antonio Trocoli
"Malvado"
12 – 7
Well-Rounded4-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'5"
CFR 4

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kondratavicius

Kondratavicius is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 57 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Kondratavicius has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Kondratavicius has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Trocoli has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Kondratavicius
Trocoli
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'5"
75"
Reach
+80"
26+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kondratavicius
Trocoli
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.8
4.2
55.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Kondratavicius
Trocoli
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
34%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
5
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance6
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Kondratavicius
Trocoli
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kondratavicius
Trocoli
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/10 fights
Chin rating based on
4/19 fights
Kondratavicius
Trocoli
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Kondratavicius
Trocoli
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kondratavicius
Trocoli
Striking2.0 / 0.0Volume10.0 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
10.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Kondratavicius
Strike Zones
Trocoli
Kondratavicius
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Trocoli
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kondratavicius targets the head (88% of attacks) — Trocoli absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Trocoli targets the head (83% of attacks) — Kondratavicius absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kondratavicius
RND
Trocoli
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Trocoli · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L2.7L3.4L6.8L2024-062024-112025-122026-03
WinLossTrend

Kondratavicius · Last 1

W · Dec · R3
Antonio TrocoliRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03

Trocoli · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Mantas KondrataviciusRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Mansur Abdul-MalikRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Sub · R1
Tresean GoreRating 2.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · KO · R3
Shara MagomedovRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06

News & Media

Mantas Kondratavicius · Antonio Trocoli
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