UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Jul 2025
Flyweight
VS
52%
Almabayev
48%
Ochoa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Almabayev
This is a genuine toss-up — Almabayev at 52% vs Ochoa at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Ochoa throws more volume but Almabayev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Almabayev
Ochoa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'7"
65"
Reach
+67"
32
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Almabayev
Ochoa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.9
53.3
53.7
Performance Avg
44.0
32
Quality of Victory
40
83
Momentum Score
69
Almabayev
Ochoa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.4
59%
Strike Accuracy
48%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
5
1
Body
5
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance5
1Clinch6
2Ground0
Almabayev
Ochoa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Almabayev
Ochoa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/26 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
Almabayev
Ochoa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
69
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Almabayev
Ochoa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almabayev
Ochoa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
AlmabayevOchoa
Strike Zones
Almabayev
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedOchoa
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almabayev targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ochoa absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Ochoa targets the head (45% of attacks) — Almabayev absorbs 45% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almabayev
RND
Ochoa
0/0R00/0
Almabayev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Ochoa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Almabayev · Last 5
Upcoming
Charles JohnsonUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Sub · R3
Alex PerezRating 6.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Manel KapeRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Matheus NicolauRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
Ochoa · Last 4
W · Dec · R3
Clayton CarpenterRating 5.4Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Cody DurdenRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Lone'er KavanaghRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11