METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Flyweight
VS
45%
Sandoval
55%
Serrano
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Hector SandovalwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Fredy Serrano · UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Serrano
→
Actual result
Sandoval wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Sandoval at 45% vs Serrano at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Serrano has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Sandoval's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SandovalSerrano
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Sandoval
Serrano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'2"
Height
+5'3"
64"
Reach
+65"
40+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sandoval
Serrano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.3
21.3
45.5
Performance Avg
53.0
43
Quality of Victory
55
57
Momentum Score
58
Sandoval
Serrano
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.0
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
8.5
5.0
Style: Volume
1.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
1
Body
2
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance9
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Sandoval
Serrano
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sandoval
Serrano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/5 fights
Sandoval
Serrano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
57
58
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Sandoval
Serrano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sandoval
Serrano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
SandovalSerrano
Strike Zones
Sandoval
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedSerrano
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sandoval targets the head (43% of attacks) — Serrano absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Serrano targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Sandoval absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sandoval
RND
Serrano
0/0R00/0
Sandoval · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Dustin OrtizKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
W · KO · R1
Matt SchnellKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Fredy SerranoDecision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Sub · R1
Wilson ReisSubmission
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
Serrano · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Hector SandovalDecision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BenoitDecision
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
W · KO · R1
Yao ZhikuiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
W · KO · R3
Bentley SylerKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03