UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Flyweight
VS
45%
Sandoval
55%
Serrano
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
HS
Hector Sandoval
"Kid Alex"
14 – 4
5'2"64" reachOrthodox39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
FS
Fredy Serrano
"El Profe"
3 – 2
Knockout Artist2-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'3"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Serrano

This is a genuine toss-up — Sandoval at 45% vs Serrano at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Serrano has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Sandoval has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Sandoval's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sandoval
Serrano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'2"
Height
+5'3"
64"
Reach
+65"
39+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sandoval
Serrano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.3
21.3
45.5
Performance Avg
53.0
43
Quality of Victory
55
57
Momentum Score
58
Sandoval
Serrano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
0.4
54%
Strike Accuracy
26%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
1
Body
2
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance9
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Sandoval
Serrano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.7
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sandoval
Serrano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/5 fights
Sandoval
Serrano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
57
58
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Sandoval
Serrano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sandoval
Serrano
Striking6.0 / 10.0Volume5.0 / 1.0Grappling1.2 / 0.0Wrestling0.8 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 8.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
Sandoval
Strike Zones
Serrano
Sandoval
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY3LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY4LEGS9 absorbed
Serrano
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY4LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY3LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sandoval targets the head (43% of attacks) — Serrano absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Serrano targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Sandoval absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sandoval
RND
Serrano
0/0R00/0

Sandoval · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.2
0101.5L4.5W5.2W1.5L2016-072016-122017-042017-08
WinLossTrend

Serrano · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L2015-032015-112016-072016-12
WinLossTrend

Sandoval · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Dustin OrtizRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
W · KO · R1
Matt SchnellRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Fredy SerranoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Sub · R1
Wilson ReisRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

Serrano · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Hector SandovalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BenoitRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
W · KO · R1
Yao ZhikuiRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
W · KO · R3
Bentley SylerRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03

News & Media

Hector Sandoval · Fredy Serrano
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