METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Flyweight
VS
45%
Sandoval
55%
Serrano
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Hector SandovalwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Fredy Serrano · UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Serrano
→
Actual result
Sandoval wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Sandoval at 45% vs Serrano at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Serrano has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Sandoval has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Sandoval's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SandovalSerrano
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Sandoval
Serrano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'2"
Height
+5'3"
64"
Reach
+65"
40+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sandoval
Serrano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.3
21.3
45.5
Performance Avg
53.0
43
Quality of Victory
55
57
Momentum Score
58
Sandoval
Serrano
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
0.4
54%
Strike Accuracy
26%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
1
Body
2
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance9
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Sandoval
Serrano
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.7
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sandoval
Serrano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/5 fights
Sandoval
Serrano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
57
58
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Sandoval
Serrano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sandoval
Serrano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
SandovalSerrano
Strike Zones
Sandoval
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedSerrano
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sandoval targets the head (43% of attacks) — Serrano absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Serrano targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Sandoval absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sandoval
RND
Serrano
0/0R00/0
Sandoval · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.2WinLossTrend
Serrano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Sandoval · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Dustin OrtizRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
W · KO · R1
Matt SchnellRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Fredy SerranoRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Sub · R1
Wilson ReisRating 1.5Submission
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
Serrano · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Hector SandovalRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BenoitRating 5.5Decision
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
W · KO · R1
Yao ZhikuiRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
W · KO · R3
Bentley SylerRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03