UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Light Heavyweight
VS
94%
Jacoby
6%
Allan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jacoby
Jacoby is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 58 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jacoby has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 48 points.
Jacoby has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Jacoby's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jacoby
Allan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
76"+
Reach
75"
38
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jacoby
Allan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.1
4.2
53.8
Performance Avg
0.0
48
Quality of Victory
0
91
Momentum Score
0
Jacoby
Allan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
38%
8.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
38
Head
20
3
Body
2
7
Leg
5
RangeRange
48Distance27
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Jacoby
Allan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jacoby
Allan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/31 fights
Chin rating based on
3/20 fights
Jacoby
Allan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Jacoby
Allan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jacoby
Allan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
JacobyAllan
Strike Zones
Jacoby
Attacking
48 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedAllan
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
48 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jacoby targets the head (79% of attacks) — Allan absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Allan targets the head (74% of attacks) — Jacoby absorbs 74% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jacoby
RND
Allan
0/0R00/0
Jacoby · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Allan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.9WinLossTrend
Jacoby · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Julius WalkerRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Bruno LopesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Dominick ReyesRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Allan · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Dustin JacobyRating 6.9Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
Upcoming
Mike RodriguezUFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07