UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2017
Welterweight
VS
47%
Edwards
53%
Luque
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
This is a genuine toss-up — Edwards at 47% vs Luque at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Luque has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Luque throws more volume but Edwards connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Luque has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Edwards
Luque
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
74"
Reach
+75"
34
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Edwards
Luque
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
64.9
51.1
Performance Avg
57.2
36
Quality of Victory
50
95
Momentum Score
100
Edwards
Luque
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.0
56%
Strike Accuracy
53%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
8
8
Body
5
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
31Distance14
4Clinch1
0Ground0
Edwards
Luque
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Luque
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
34
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
25/36 fights
Edwards
Luque
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Edwards
Luque
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
82%
3
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
7
10
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Luque
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.1
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
EdwardsLuque
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedLuque
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (74% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Luque targets the head (53% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Luque
0/0R00/0
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Edwards · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradyRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
Luque · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Joel AlvarezRating 6.8Decision
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L · Sub · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Themba GorimboRating 5.4Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9KO/TKO
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