UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Montreal, Canada
10 May 2025
Featherweight
VS
44%
Aldo
56%
Zahabi
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Zahabi
This is a genuine toss-up — Aldo at 44% vs Zahabi at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aldo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Zahabi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Aldo's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Aldo
Zahabi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"+
Reach
68"
39
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aldo
Zahabi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.5
57.6
53.6
Performance Avg
52.2
49
Quality of Victory
34
40
Momentum Score
89
Aldo
Zahabi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.7
48%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
45
1
Body
7
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance23
0Clinch4
1Ground25
Aldo
Zahabi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aldo
Zahabi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/42 fights
Chin rating based on
11/16 fights
Aldo
Zahabi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Aldo
Zahabi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
25%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aldo
Zahabi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.6
AldoZahabi
Strike Zones
Aldo
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
52 absorbedZahabi
Attacking
52 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aldo targets the head (95% of attacks) — Zahabi absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Zahabi targets the head (87% of attacks) — Aldo absorbs 87% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aldo
RND
Zahabi
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Aldo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Zahabi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Aldo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 6.6Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 5Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Rob FontRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
Zahabi · Last 5
Upcoming
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W · Dec · R3
Marlon VeraRating 5.3Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R3
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