METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Las Vegas, USA
15 Dec 2012
Lightweight
VS
89%
Rio
11%
Cofer
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:11
★ Official Result
Mike RiowinsSubmissionR3 · 4:11
def. John Cofer · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rio
→
Actual result
Rio wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Rio is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rio has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
Risk flags
Rio's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cofer has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RioCofer
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Rio
Cofer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
45
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Rio
Cofer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
1.8
37.0
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
36
Momentum Score
0
Rio
Cofer
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
7.8
Style: Pressure
0.0
0.5
Style: Volume
0.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
5
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Rio
Cofer
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rio
Cofer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/15 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Rio
Cofer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
36
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
Rio
Cofer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rio
Cofer
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
RioCofer
Strike Zones
Rio
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedCofer
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rio targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cofer absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Cofer targets the head (71% of attacks) — Rio absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rio
RND
Cofer
0/0R00/0
Rio · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Daron CruickshankKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
L · Sub · R1
Francisco TrinaldoSubmission
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
W · Sub · R3
John CoferSubmission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
Cofer · Last 2
L · Sub · R3
Mike RioSubmission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · KO · R3
Justin LawrenceKO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · 2012-06