The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Las Vegas, USA
15 Dec 2012
Lightweight
VS
89%
Rio
11%
Cofer
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:11
MR
Mike Rio
"The Wolverine"
10 – 5
5'10"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 15
JC
John Cofer
"The Potter"
8 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw5'9"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rio

Rio is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rio has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.

Striking split: Rio throws more volume but Cofer connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Rio's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cofer has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Rio
Cofer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Rio
Cofer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
1.8
37.0
Performance Avg
0.0
45
Quality of Victory
0
36
Momentum Score
0
Rio
Cofer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.3
35%
Strike Accuracy
58%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
5
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Rio
Cofer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rio
Cofer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/15 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Rio
Cofer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
36
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
Rio
Cofer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rio
Cofer
Striking0.5 / 0.0Volume0.5 / 0.0Grappling8.0 / 0.0Wrestling5.6 / 0.0Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure7.8 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Rio
Strike Zones
Cofer
Rio
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Cofer
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rio targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cofer absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Cofer targets the head (71% of attacks) — Rio absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rio
RND
Cofer
0/0R00/0

Rio · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.0
0105.5W1.5L2.0L2.8L2012-122013-052013-102014-01
WinLossTrend

Cofer · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.0L4.0L2012-062012-12
WinLossTrend

Rio · Last 4

L · KO · R2
Daron CruickshankRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 2
Submission
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
L · Sub · R1
Francisco TrinaldoRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
W · Sub · R3
John CoferRating 5.5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12

Cofer · Last 2

L · Sub · R3
Mike RioRating 4
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · KO · R3
Justin LawrenceRating 4
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · 2012-06

News & Media

Mike Rio · John Cofer
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