UFC 70: Nations Collide
Manchester, United Kingdom
21 Apr 2007
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Machida
43%
Heath
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
LM
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24 – 8
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw47 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 19
DH
David Heath
18 – 7
Well-Rounded3-fight slide50 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Machida

This is a genuine toss-up — Machida at 57% vs Heath at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Machida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Heath has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Machida
Heath
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
72"
47+
Age
50
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Machida
Heath
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
14.0
53.8
Performance Avg
39.7
45
Quality of Victory
40
78
Momentum Score
28
Machida
Heath
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.5
54%
Strike Accuracy
28%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
1
4
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance3
8Clinch0
18Ground0
Machida
Heath
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Heath
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
5/25 fights
Machida
Heath
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
28
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Machida
Heath
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Machida
Heath
Striking5.7 / 0.8Volume5.3 / 4.8Grappling1.7 / 5.2Wrestling1.2 / 3.6Submission0.6 / 5.0Pressure5.5 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Machida
Strike Zones
Heath
Machida
Attacking
27HEAD4BODY2LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Heath
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD4BODY2LEGS33 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the head (82% of attacks) — Heath absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Heath targets the head (33% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 33% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Machida
RND
Heath
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Machida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W3.9L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W6.3L5.0W2.1L2.8L1.8L5.3W5.2W2007-022009-052012-082014-122018-05
WinLossTrend

Heath · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0105.0W4.5W5.5L2.8L1.5L2006-082006-122007-042007-082008-02
WinLossTrend

Machida · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04

Heath · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 81: Breaking Point · 2008-02
L · Sub · R2
Renato SobralRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 74: Respect · 2007-08
L · Dec · R3
Lyoto MachidaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 70: Nations Collide · 2007-04
W · Dec · R3
Victor ValimakiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sanchez vs Riggs · 2006-12
W · Sub · R1
Cory WalmsleyRating 5
Submission
UFC 62: Liddell vs Sobral · 2006-08

News & Media

Lyoto Machida · David Heath
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