UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
Paris, France
28 Sept 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
61%
Cutelaba
39%
Erslan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cutelaba
Cutelaba holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Erslan has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cutelaba has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Striking split: Cutelaba throws more volume but Erslan connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cutelaba's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cutelaba
Erslan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
75"+
Reach
72"
32+
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Cutelaba
Erslan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.5
26.3
47.1
Performance Avg
25.0
47
Quality of Victory
25
26
Momentum Score
17
Cutelaba
Erslan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.6
45%
Strike Accuracy
49%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Cutelaba
Erslan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.2
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cutelaba
Erslan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
84
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/31 fights
Chin rating based on
4/21 fights
Cutelaba
Erslan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
17
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Cutelaba
Erslan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cutelaba
Erslan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
CutelabaErslan
Strike Zones
Cutelaba
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedErslan
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cutelaba targets the head (67% of attacks) — Erslan absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Erslan targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cutelaba absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cutelaba
RND
Erslan
0/0R00/0
Cutelaba · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Erslan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Cutelaba · Last 5
Upcoming
Navajo StirlingUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Oumar SyRating 6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 6.3Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Sub · R1
Ibo AslanRating 5.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Ivan ErslanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
Erslan · Last 4
W · Dec · R3
Tuco TokkosRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Jimmy CruteRating 3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Navajo StirlingRating 7Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09