UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Lightweight
VS
52%
Bonfim
48%
Pichel
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Bonfim
This is a genuine toss-up — Bonfim at 52% vs Pichel at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Bonfim has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Bonfim has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bonfim's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pichel has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Bonfim
Pichel
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
+72"
30+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bonfim
Pichel
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.8
39.5
40.0
Performance Avg
41.3
40
Quality of Victory
30
41
Momentum Score
40
Bonfim
Pichel
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.6
1.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
12
7
Body
6
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
37Distance20
2Clinch0
2Ground1
Bonfim
Pichel
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bonfim
Pichel
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/19 fights
Bonfim
Pichel
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Bonfim
Pichel
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
14%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bonfim
Pichel
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.6
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.8
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.0
BonfimPichel
Strike Zones
Bonfim
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedPichel
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bonfim targets the head (78% of attacks) — Pichel absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Pichel targets the head (57% of attacks) — Bonfim absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bonfim
RND
Pichel
0/0R00/0
Bonfim · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Pichel · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Bonfim · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Chris PadillaRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
L · R1
Nazim SadykhovRating 5.5UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 4.7Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R1
Benoit Saint DenisRating 3.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
W · KO · R2
Terrance McKinneyRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
Pichel · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Ismael BonfimRating 5.9Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Mark MadsenRating 5.7Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08