UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song
Las Vegas, USA
17 Sept 2022
Lightweight
VS
95%
Motta
5%
VanCamp
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:49
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Motta
Motta is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Motta has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 48 points.
VanCamp has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Motta's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
VanCamp has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Motta
VanCamp
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'2"
70"
Reach
+74"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Motta
VanCamp
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.4
2.5
49.0
Performance Avg
0.0
48
Quality of Victory
0
41
Momentum Score
0
Motta
VanCamp
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
6.8
47%
Strike Accuracy
48%
7.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
7
1
Body
4
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
15Distance15
0Clinch0
9Ground0
Motta
VanCamp
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Motta
VanCamp
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
56
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/21 fights
Chin rating based on
2/22 fights
Motta
VanCamp
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Motta
VanCamp
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Motta
VanCamp
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MottaVanCamp
Strike Zones
Motta
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedVanCamp
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Motta targets the head (92% of attacks) — VanCamp absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯VanCamp targets the head (47% of attacks) — Motta absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Motta
RND
VanCamp
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Motta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
VanCamp · QOF Timeline
Avg: 1.8WinLossTrend
Motta · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Nazim SadykhovRating 4.2KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
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W · KO · R1
Tom NolanRating 6.5KO/TKO
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Upcoming
Trey OgdenUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · KO · R1
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VanCamp · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Nikolas MottaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09
L · KO · R1
Andre FialhoRating 1.5KO/TKO
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