UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Lightweight
VS
43%
Brener
57%
Orolbai
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Elves
Elves Brener
16 – 6
5'10"72" reachOrthodox28 yrs3-fight slideStriker
CFR 51
Myktybek
Myktybek Orolbai
16 – 2
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak28 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 67

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Orolbai

This is a genuine toss-up — Brener at 43% vs Orolbai at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Brener throws more volume but Orolbai connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Brener
Orolbai
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
+74"
28
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brener
Orolbai
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.3
67.1
47.0
Performance Avg
59.0
45
Quality of Victory
43
52
Momentum Score
92
Brener
Orolbai
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
0.9
46%
Strike Accuracy
47%
7.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
15
2
Body
1
7
Leg
1
RangeRange
14Distance11
0Clinch3
3Ground3
Brener
Orolbai
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brener
Orolbai
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/22 fights
Chin rating based on
6/18 fights
Brener
Orolbai
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
92
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Brener
Orolbai
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brener
Orolbai
Striking7.7 / 3.7Volume3.7 / 4.9Grappling0.8 / 4.2Wrestling0.6 / 2.9Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure6.2 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Brener
Strike Zones
Orolbai
Brener
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY7LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD1BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Orolbai
Attacking
15HEAD1BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY7LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brener targets the head (47% of attacks) — Orolbai absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Orolbai targets the head (88% of attacks) — Brener absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brener
RND
Orolbai
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Brener · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.0W5.6W5.0W7.1L5.3L6.2L2023-022023-072023-112024-052024-082025-08
WinLossTrend

Orolbai · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0107.1W5.3W6.1L5.2W5.9W5.2W2023-112024-052024-102025-062025-112026-03
WinLossTrend

Brener · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Esteban RibovicsRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · KO · R3
Joel AlvarezRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · KO · R1
Kaynan KruschewskyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
W · KO · R3
Guram KutateladzeRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07

Orolbai · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Tofiq MusayevRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Elves BrenerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

News & Media

Elves Brener · Myktybek Orolbai
← Back to fights