METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Lightweight
VS
47%
Brener
53%
Orolbai
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Myktybek OrolbaiwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Elves Brener · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Orolbai
→
Actual result
Orolbai wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Brener at 47% vs Orolbai at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BrenerOrolbai
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Brener
Orolbai
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
+74"
28
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brener
Orolbai
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.3
59.0
47.0
Performance Avg
54.2
45
Quality of Victory
43
52
Momentum Score
69
Brener
Orolbai
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.7
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
6.2
Style: Pressure
6.3
3.7
Style: Volume
4.6
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
15
2
Body
1
7
Leg
1
RangeRange
14Distance11
0Clinch3
3Ground3
Brener
Orolbai
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brener
Orolbai
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
86
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/22 fights
Chin rating based on
7/18 fights
Brener
Orolbai
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
69
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Brener
Orolbai
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brener
Orolbai
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
BrenerOrolbai
Strike Zones
Brener
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedOrolbai
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brener targets the head (47% of attacks) — Orolbai absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Orolbai targets the head (88% of attacks) — Brener absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brener
RND
Orolbai
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Brener · Last 5
Upcoming
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