UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Flyweight
VS
49%
Johnson
51%
Bunes
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:04
Jose
Jose Johnson
"Zhakwarius"
16 – 10
6'0"71" reachOrthodox31 yrs2-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 46
Felipe
Felipe Bunes
"Felipinho"
14 – 9
Submission Hunter2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 47

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bunes

This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 49% vs Bunes at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Bunes throws more volume but Johnson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Johnson
Bunes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
69"
31+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Bunes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
47.4
37.0
Performance Avg
42.4
45
Quality of Victory
54
43
Momentum Score
29
Johnson
Bunes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.6
68%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
3
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance2
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Johnson
Bunes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Bunes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/26 fights
Chin rating based on
4/23 fights
Johnson
Bunes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
29
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Johnson
Bunes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Johnson
Bunes
Striking0.5 / 0.5Volume0.5 / 0.5Grappling8.0 / 8.0Wrestling5.6 / 5.6Submission10.0 / 10.0Pressure7.8 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Johnson
Strike Zones
Bunes
Johnson
Attacking
3HEAD3BODY2LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Bunes
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD3BODY2LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (38% of attacks) — Bunes absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Bunes targets the head (100% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Johnson
RND
Bunes
0/0R00/0

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0102.5L5.9W6.6L2.1L2023-082023-112024-062025-01
WinLossTrend

Bunes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0104.4L5.6W6.1L6.5L2024-012025-012025-082026-02
WinLossTrend

Johnson · Last 4

L · Sub · R1
Felipe BunesRating 2.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
W · Sub · R3
Chad AnheligerRating 5.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · Sub · R1
Da'Mon BlackshearRating 2.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08

Bunes · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Edgar ChairezRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Rafael EstevamRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
Jose JohnsonRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · KO · R2
Joshua VanRating 4.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01

News & Media

Jose Johnson · Felipe Bunes
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