UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2023
Women's Flyweight
VS
45%
Wood
55%
Carolina
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Carolina
This is a genuine toss-up — Wood at 45% vs Carolina at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Wood has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Wood's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Carolina has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Wood
Carolina
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
65"
Reach
+69"
40
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Wood
Carolina
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.5
47.8
39.8
Performance Avg
41.5
31
Quality of Victory
29
68
Momentum Score
80
Wood
Carolina
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.3
1.7
53%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
26
21
Body
9
7
Leg
3
RangeRange
43Distance32
17Clinch6
0Ground0
Wood
Carolina
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Wood
Carolina
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/25 fights
Chin rating based on
10/16 fights
Wood
Carolina
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
68
80
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Wood
Carolina
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
17%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Wood
Carolina
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
WoodCarolina
Strike Zones
Wood
Attacking
60 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedCarolina
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
60 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Wood targets the head (53% of attacks) — Carolina absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Carolina targets the head (68% of attacks) — Wood absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Wood
RND
Carolina
0/0R00/0
Wood · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Carolina · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Wood · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Maryna MorozRating 5.1Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Luana CarolinaRating 5.1Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · Sub · R1
Alexa GrassoRating 2.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
L · Sub · R1
Taila SantosRating 1.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Lauren MurphyRating 6.3Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
Carolina · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michelle MontagueRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Lucie PudilovaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
W · KO · R3
Julija StoliarenkoRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Ivana PetrovicRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Joanne WoodRating 5.7Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03