UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
St. Louis, USA
11 May 2024
Featherweight
VS
41%
Caceres
59%
Woodson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Woodson
This is a genuine toss-up — Caceres at 41% vs Woodson at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Woodson throws more volume but Caceres connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Woodson has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Caceres
Woodson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'2"
73"
Reach
+78"
37
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Caceres
Woodson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
56.1
42.2
Performance Avg
52.1
34
Quality of Victory
35
76
Momentum Score
84
Caceres
Woodson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
47%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
27
13
Body
7
3
Leg
5
RangeRange
30Distance38
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Caceres
Woodson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Woodson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
10/15 fights
Caceres
Woodson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Caceres
Woodson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
29%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Caceres
Woodson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
CaceresWoodson
Strike Zones
Caceres
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedWoodson
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (50% of attacks) — Woodson absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Woodson targets the head (69% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Caceres
RND
Woodson
0/0R00/0
Caceres · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Woodson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Caceres · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5Decision
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Woodson · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Dan IgeRating 4.7KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Fernando PadillaRating 6.3KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Charles JourdainRating 5.3Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Dennis BuzukjaRating 5Decision
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