METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
St. Louis, USA
11 May 2024
Featherweight
VS
42%
Caceres
58%
Woodson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Sean WoodsonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Alex Caceres · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Woodson
→
Actual result
Woodson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Caceres at 42% vs Woodson at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Woodson has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CaceresWoodson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Caceres
Woodson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'2"
73"
Reach
+78"
38
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Caceres
Woodson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
55.8
42.2
Performance Avg
52.2
34
Quality of Victory
34
76
Momentum Score
84
Caceres
Woodson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
/ 10
4.1
/ 10
3.8
Style: Pressure
4.2
6.1
Style: Volume
7.6
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
27
13
Body
7
3
Leg
5
RangeRange
30Distance38
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Caceres
Woodson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Caceres
Woodson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
11/15 fights
Caceres
Woodson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Caceres
Woodson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
25%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Caceres
Woodson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.6
CaceresWoodson
Strike Zones
Caceres
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedWoodson
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (50% of attacks) — Woodson absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Woodson targets the head (69% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Caceres
RND
Woodson
0/0R00/0
Caceres · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffDecision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
Woodson · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Jack JenkinsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · 2026-08
L · KO · R3
Dan IgeKO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Fernando PadillaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Charles JourdainDecision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01