UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Perth, Australia
27 Sept 2025
Lightweight
VS
53%
Nolan
47%
Campbell
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:08
Tom
Tom Nolan
"Big Train"
10 – 1
6'3"73" reachSouthpaw26 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 65
Charlie
Charlie Campbell
"The Cannibal"
9 – 3
Well-Rounded30 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'0"
CFR 58

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nolan

This is a genuine toss-up — Nolan at 53% vs Campbell at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Campbell has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Nolan
Campbell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
73"+
Reach
72"
26+
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nolan
Campbell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.0
57.5
56.6
Performance Avg
52.2
41
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
70
Nolan
Campbell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
3.0
48%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
7
9
Body
1
4
Leg
7
RangeRange
23Distance14
3Clinch0
0Ground1
Nolan
Campbell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.8
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nolan
Campbell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
88
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/11 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Nolan
Campbell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
70
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Nolan
Campbell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nolan
Campbell
Striking4.1 / 6.3Volume5.6 / 5.3Grappling3.2 / 1.2Wrestling2.2 / 0.8Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure5.9 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Nolan
Strike Zones
Campbell
Nolan
Attacking
13HEAD9BODY4LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY7LEGS15 absorbed
Campbell
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY7LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD9BODY4LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nolan targets the head (50% of attacks) — Campbell absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Campbell targets the head (47% of attacks) — Nolan absorbs 47% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nolan
RND
Campbell
0/0R00/0

Nolan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.1L5.0W4.5W5.0W6.1W2024-012024-052024-082025-022025-09
WinLossTrend

Campbell · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W4.8W3.0L2023-092024-042025-09
WinLossTrend

Nolan · Last 5

Upcoming
Fares Ziam
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Charlie CampbellRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Alex ReyesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · KO · R1
Victor MartinezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

Campbell · Last 3

L · Sub · R1
Tom NolanRating 3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Trevor PeekRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Alex ReyesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

News & Media

Tom Nolan · Charlie Campbell
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