METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Perth, Australia
27 Sept 2025
Lightweight
VS
53%
Nolan
47%
Campbell
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:08
★ Official Result
Tom NolanwinsSubmissionR1 · 4:08
def. Charlie Campbell · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nolan
→
Actual result
Nolan wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Nolan at 53% vs Campbell at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NolanCampbell
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nolan
Campbell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
73"+
Reach
72"
26+
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nolan
Campbell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.6
57.5
56.0
Performance Avg
52.2
38
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
70
Nolan
Campbell
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.7
/ 10
6.3
/ 10
5.3
Style: Pressure
5.5
6.5
Style: Volume
5.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
7
9
Body
1
4
Leg
7
RangeRange
23Distance14
3Clinch0
0Ground1
Nolan
Campbell
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nolan
Campbell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
88
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/11 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Nolan
Campbell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
70
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Nolan
Campbell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nolan
Campbell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
NolanCampbell
Strike Zones
Nolan
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedCampbell
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nolan targets the head (50% of attacks) — Campbell absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Campbell targets the head (47% of attacks) — Nolan absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nolan
RND
Campbell
0/0R00/0
Nolan · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamDecision
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Charlie CampbellSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Viacheslav BorshchevDecision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Alex ReyesDecision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · KO · R1
Victor MartinezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
Campbell · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Tom NolanSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Trevor PeekDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Alex ReyesKO/TKO
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09