UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Vancouver, Canada
14 Sept 2019
Heavyweight
VS
91%
Duffee
9%
Hughes
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Duffee
Duffee is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Duffee has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 60 points.
Striking split: Duffee throws more volume but Hughes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Duffee's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Duffee
Hughes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
78"+
Reach
77"
40
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Duffee
Hughes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.5
2.4
60.0
Performance Avg
0.0
60
Quality of Victory
0
98
Momentum Score
0
Duffee
Hughes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.1
1.5
46%
Strike Accuracy
51%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
12
5
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
19Distance14
9Clinch2
2Ground0
Duffee
Hughes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Duffee
Hughes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/12 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Duffee
Hughes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Duffee
Hughes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Duffee
Hughes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
DuffeeHughes
Strike Zones
Duffee
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedHughes
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Duffee targets the head (83% of attacks) — Hughes absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Hughes targets the head (75% of attacks) — Duffee absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Duffee
RND
Hughes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Duffee · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Hughes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Duffee · Last 5
Upcoming
Jeff HughesUFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
L · KO · R1
Frank MirRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
Anthony HamiltonRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12
W · KO · R1
Philip De FriesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
L · KO · R3
Mike RussowRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
Hughes · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Juan EspinoRating 1.5Submission
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Raphael PessoaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
Upcoming
Todd DuffeeUFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Maurice GreeneRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03