UFC 68: The Uprising
Columbus, USA
3 Mar 2007
Light Heavyweight
VS
89%
Hamill
11%
Holman
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:00
MH
Matt Hamill
"The Hammer"
12 – 8
6'1"76" reachOrthodox49 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 19
RH
Rex Holman
"Big Dog"
4 – 2
Well-RoundedNaNSouthpaw6'3"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hamill

Hamill is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Hamill has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 42 points.

Striking split: Holman throws more volume but Hamill connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Hamill's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hamill
Holman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
49
Age
—
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Hamill
Holman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
2.2
51.9
Performance Avg
0.0
42
Quality of Victory
0
63
Momentum Score
0
Hamill
Holman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
4.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
34%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
3
1
Body
1
0
Leg
7
RangeRange
10Distance10
4Clinch1
15Ground0
Hamill
Holman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hamill
Holman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
1/6 fights
Hamill
Holman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
0
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Hamill
Holman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hamill
Holman
Striking6.3 / 0.0Volume4.5 / 0.0Grappling1.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Hamill
Strike Zones
Holman
Hamill
Attacking
28HEAD1BODY0LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY7LEGS11 absorbed
Holman
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY7LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
28HEAD1BODY0LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hamill targets the head (97% of attacks) — Holman absorbs 97% of strikes there
🎯Holman targets the legs (64% of attacks) — Hamill absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hamill
RND
Holman
0/0R00/0

Hamill · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.2W4.0L5.2W5.0W5.8W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L4.5W5.5L2006-062008-042009-122011-082013-10
WinLossTrend

Hamill · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Thiago SilvaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
W · Dec · R3
Roger HollettRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · 2012-09
L · KO · R2
Alexander GustafssonRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Quinton JacksonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · 2011-05
W · Dec · R3
Tito OrtizRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10

Holman · Last 1

L · KO · R1
Matt HamillRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 68: The Uprising · 2007-03

News & Media

Matt Hamill · Rex Holman
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