METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till
Liverpool, United Kingdom
27 May 2018
Middleweight
VS
45%
Kelly
55%
Breese
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:33
★ Official Result
Tom BreesewinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:33
def. Daniel Kelly · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Breese
→
Actual result
Breese wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Kelly at 45% vs Breese at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Breese has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Breese has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Kelly's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Breese has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KellyBreese
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kelly
Breese
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+73"
48
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Kelly
Breese
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
19.7
44.4
Performance Avg
56.8
34
Quality of Victory
53
65
Momentum Score
46
Kelly
Breese
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
2.3
41%
Strike Accuracy
54%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
21
1
Body
2
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance22
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Kelly
Breese
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kelly
Breese
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Kelly
Breese
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
46
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Kelly
Breese
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kelly
Breese
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
KellyBreese
Strike Zones
Kelly
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedBreese
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Breese absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Breese targets the head (91% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kelly
RND
Breese
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Kelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Breese · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Kelly · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
Breese · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Omari AkhmedovRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
KB BhullarRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · KO · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
W · KO · R1
Daniel KellyRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06