UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till
Liverpool, United Kingdom
27 May 2018
Middleweight
VS
45%
Kelly
55%
Breese
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:33
DK
Daniel Kelly
13 – 4
6'0"70" reachSouthpaw48 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
TB
Tom Breese
12 – 3
Knockout Artist34 yrsSouthpaw73" reach6'3"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Breese

This is a genuine toss-up — Kelly at 45% vs Breese at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Breese has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.

Breese has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Kelly's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Breese has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Kelly
Breese
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+73"
48
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Kelly
Breese
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
19.7
44.4
Performance Avg
56.8
34
Quality of Victory
53
65
Momentum Score
46
Kelly
Breese
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
2.3
41%
Strike Accuracy
54%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
21
1
Body
2
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance22
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Kelly
Breese
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kelly
Breese
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Kelly
Breese
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
46
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Kelly
Breese
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kelly
Breese
Striking2.9 / 9.3Volume6.5 / 2.9Grappling2.9 / 0.5Wrestling2.0 / 0.3Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure4.1 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Kelly
Strike Zones
Breese
Kelly
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY4LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD2BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Breese
Attacking
21HEAD2BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY4LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Breese absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Breese targets the head (91% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kelly
RND
Breese
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Kelly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0105.0W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W1.8L5.5L1.5L2014-112015-112017-032018-05
WinLossTrend

Breese · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W4.5W6.6L5.0W2.8L5.0W2.8L2015-052016-022018-052020-102021-01
WinLossTrend

Kelly · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11

Breese · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Omari AkhmedovRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
KB BhullarRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · KO · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
W · KO · R1
Daniel KellyRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06

News & Media

Daniel Kelly · Tom Breese
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