METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till
Liverpool, United Kingdom
27 May 2018
Middleweight
VS
45%
Kelly
55%
Breese
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:33
★ Official Result
Tom BreesewinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:33
def. Daniel Kelly · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Breese
→
Actual result
Breese wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Kelly at 45% vs Breese at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Breese has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Risk flags
Kelly's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Breese has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KellyBreese
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kelly
Breese
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+73"
48
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Kelly
Breese
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
19.7
44.4
Performance Avg
56.8
34
Quality of Victory
53
65
Momentum Score
46
Kelly
Breese
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
9.3
/ 10
4.1
Style: Pressure
7.5
6.5
Style: Volume
2.9
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
21
1
Body
2
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance22
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Kelly
Breese
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kelly
Breese
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Kelly
Breese
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
46
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Kelly
Breese
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kelly
Breese
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
KellyBreese
Strike Zones
Kelly
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedBreese
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Breese absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Breese targets the head (91% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kelly
RND
Breese
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Kelly · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouDecision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansDecision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
Breese · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Omari AkhmedovSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
KB BhullarKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · KO · R1
Brendan AllenKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
W · KO · R1
Daniel KellyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandDecision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06