METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Las Vegas, USA
18 Dec 2021
Welterweight
VS
45%
Thompson
55%
Muhammad
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Belal MuhammadwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Stephen Thompson · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Muhammad
→
Actual result
Muhammad wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Thompson at 45% vs Muhammad at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Thompson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Thompson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Thompson's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ThompsonMuhammad
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Thompson
Muhammad
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
72"
43
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thompson
Muhammad
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.3
56.8
48.9
Performance Avg
48.5
43
Quality of Victory
31
45
Momentum Score
100
Thompson
Muhammad
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
1.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
45%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Thompson
Muhammad
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Thompson
Muhammad
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
19 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/26 fights
Chin rating based on
22/29 fights
Thompson
Muhammad
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Thompson
Muhammad
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
20%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Thompson
Muhammad
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
ThompsonMuhammad
Strike Zones
Thompson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMuhammad
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Thompson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Muhammad absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Muhammad targets the head (100% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Thompson
RND
Muhammad
0/0R00/0
Thompson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Muhammad · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 4.8Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
Muhammad · Last 5
Upcoming
Gabriel BonfimUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 7Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05