UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Las Vegas, USA
18 Dec 2021
Welterweight
VS
45%
Thompson
55%
Muhammad
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Stephen
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17 – 9
6'0"75" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 46
Belal
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
24 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Muhammad

This is a genuine toss-up — Thompson at 45% vs Muhammad at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Thompson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Thompson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Thompson's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Thompson
Muhammad
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
72"
43
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thompson
Muhammad
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.3
56.8
48.9
Performance Avg
48.5
43
Quality of Victory
31
45
Momentum Score
100
Thompson
Muhammad
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
45%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Thompson
Muhammad
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Thompson
Muhammad
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
19 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/26 fights
Chin rating based on
22/29 fights
Thompson
Muhammad
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Thompson
Muhammad
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
20%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thompson
Muhammad
Striking6.1 / 2.8Volume5.1 / 7.9Grappling1.2 / 2.5Wrestling0.8 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.7Pressure5.2 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
Thompson
Strike Zones
Muhammad
Thompson
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Muhammad
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thompson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Muhammad absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Muhammad targets the head (100% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thompson
RND
Muhammad
0/0R00/0

Thompson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W5.9L4.5W5.2W5.9W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2.1L6.0W5.5W5.7L6.6L6.0W4.8L5.2L7.2L2012-022015-072019-032023-122025-07
WinLossTrend

Muhammad · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.5W3.0L5.4W4.5W4.6W4.5W6.5L4.5W5.7W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.1W6.0W6.4W4.7W5.6W7.0L7.0L2016-072017-112020-062022-102025-11
WinLossTrend

Thompson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 4.8
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

Muhammad · Last 5

Upcoming
Gabriel Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 7
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

News & Media

Stephen Thompson · Belal Muhammad
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