METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Las Vegas, USA
18 Dec 2021
Welterweight
VS
45%
Thompson
55%
Muhammad
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Belal MuhammadwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Stephen Thompson · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Muhammad
→
Actual result
Muhammad wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Thompson at 45% vs Muhammad at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Thompson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Risk flags
Thompson's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Muhammad has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ThompsonMuhammad
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Thompson
Muhammad
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
72"
43
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thompson
Muhammad
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.3
55.8
48.9
Performance Avg
47.1
43
Quality of Victory
31
45
Momentum Score
100
Thompson
Muhammad
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.1
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
5.2
Style: Pressure
3.5
5.1
Style: Volume
7.8
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Thompson
Muhammad
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Thompson
Muhammad
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
19 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/26 fights
Chin rating based on
22/29 fights
Thompson
Muhammad
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Thompson
Muhammad
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
20%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Thompson
Muhammad
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.8
ThompsonMuhammad
Strike Zones
Thompson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMuhammad
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Thompson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Muhammad absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Muhammad targets the head (100% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Thompson
RND
Muhammad
0/0R00/0
Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyKO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovSubmission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
Muhammad · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Gabriel BonfimDecision
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryDecision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaDecision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsDecision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05