UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
Buffalo, USA
8 Apr 2017
Lightweight
VS
72%
Gillespie
28%
Holbrook
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gillespie
Gillespie is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gillespie has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Gillespie has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Holbrook has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gillespie
Holbrook
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'11"
71"+
Reach
70"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Gillespie
Holbrook
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.8
9.5
65.3
Performance Avg
31.0
51
Quality of Victory
25
89
Momentum Score
25
Gillespie
Holbrook
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.7
1.1
58%
Strike Accuracy
44%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
3
0
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance4
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Gillespie
Holbrook
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gillespie
Holbrook
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
34
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/15 fights
Chin rating based on
5/15 fights
Gillespie
Holbrook
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
25
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Gillespie
Holbrook
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
86%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gillespie
Holbrook
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
GillespieHolbrook
Strike Zones
Gillespie
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedHolbrook
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gillespie targets the head (88% of attacks) — Holbrook absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Holbrook targets the head (75% of attacks) — Gillespie absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gillespie
RND
Holbrook
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gillespie · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Holbrook · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.0WinLossTrend
Gillespie · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin LeeRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · KO · R2
Yancy MedeirosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
W · Sub · R2
Vinc PichelRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
W · KO · R1
Jordan RinaldiRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
Holbrook · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Thibault GoutiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Gregor GillespieRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · KO · R1
Joaquim SilvaRating 2.1KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Ramsey NijemRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07