The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale
Las Vegas, USA
1 Dec 2017
Women's Flyweight
VS
13%
Gevorgyan
87%
Ostovich
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:40
KG
Karine Gevorgyan
"The Princess"
3 – 3
5'4"63" reach37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 3
Rachael
Rachael Ostovich
4 – 6
Submission Hunter3-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'3"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ostovich

Ostovich is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ostovich has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.

Striking split: Gevorgyan throws more volume but Ostovich connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Ostovich has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Gevorgyan
Ostovich
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'3"
63"+
Reach
62"
37
Age
+35
—
Stance
Orthodox
Gevorgyan
Ostovich
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.5
16.5
0.0
Performance Avg
42.4
0
Quality of Victory
54
0
Momentum Score
36
Gevorgyan
Ostovich
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.7
20%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Gevorgyan
Ostovich
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gevorgyan
Ostovich
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
54
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/6 fights
Chin rating based on
4/10 fights
Gevorgyan
Ostovich
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
36
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Gevorgyan
Ostovich
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gevorgyan
Ostovich
Striking0.0 / 0.5Volume0.0 / 0.5Grappling0.0 / 8.0Wrestling0.0 / 5.6Submission0.0 / 10.0Pressure0.0 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Gevorgyan
Strike Zones
Ostovich
Gevorgyan
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY2LEGS3 absorbed
Ostovich
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY2LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gevorgyan targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ostovich absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Ostovich targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Gevorgyan absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gevorgyan
RND
Ostovich
0/0R00/0

Ostovich · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W5.0L2.8L4.0L2017-122018-072019-012020-11
WinLossTrend

Gevorgyan · Last 1

L · Sub · R1
Rachael OstovichRating 1.5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12

Ostovich · Last 4

L · KO · R3
Gina MazanyRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
L · Sub · R2
Paige VanZantRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · Sub · R3
Montana De La RosaRating 5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · 2018-07
W · Sub · R1
Karine GevorgyanRating 5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12

News & Media

Karine Gevorgyan · Rachael Ostovich
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