UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
Auburn Hills, USA
20 Nov 2010
Lightweight
VS
4%
Lullo
96%
Barboza
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Barboza
Barboza is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barboza has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Striking split: Barboza throws more volume but Lullo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Barboza has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lullo
Barboza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
Reach
75"
46
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lullo
Barboza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.1
44.9
0.0
Performance Avg
46.3
0
Quality of Victory
40
0
Momentum Score
60
Lullo
Barboza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.3
59%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
9 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Lullo
Barboza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.0
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lullo
Barboza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/11 fights
Chin rating based on
32/38 fights
Lullo
Barboza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
60
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Lullo
Barboza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
9
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lullo
Barboza
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
LulloBarboza
Strike Zones
Lullo
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedBarboza
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lullo targets the head (100% of attacks) — Barboza absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Barboza targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Lullo absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lullo
RND
Barboza
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lullo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Barboza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Lullo · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Robert PeraltaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
L · KO · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
Barboza · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Sodiq YusuffRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · KO · R1
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04