UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Las Vegas, USA
17 May 2025
Lightweight
VS
51%
Gordon
49%
Moises
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:37
Jared
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
21 – 9
5'9"68" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 42
Thiago
Thiago Moises
19 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide31 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 40

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gordon

This is a genuine toss-up — Gordon at 51% vs Moises at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Gordon has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gordon's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Moises has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Gordon
Moises
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
68"
Reach
+70"
37
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gordon
Moises
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.1
39.7
42.8
Performance Avg
42.7
36
Quality of Victory
38
63
Momentum Score
39
Gordon
Moises
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
0.9
54%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
0
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance5
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Gordon
Moises
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gordon
Moises
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
14
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/30 fights
Chin rating based on
16/29 fights
Gordon
Moises
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
39
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Gordon
Moises
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gordon
Moises
Striking4.4 / 2.3Volume6.4 / 5.0Grappling1.6 / 4.2Wrestling1.1 / 2.9Submission0.0 / 3.8Pressure3.9 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.3
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
6.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Gordon
Strike Zones
Moises
Gordon
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 absorbed
Moises
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gordon targets the head (71% of attacks) — Moises absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Moises targets the head (60% of attacks) — Gordon absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gordon
RND
Moises
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Gordon · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W4.5W2.5L4.6L4.5W2.9L4.5W4.5W5.2W5.5L4.6W7.2L5.2W6.2L5.2W4.8L1.9L2017-062019-112022-082025-092026-05
WinLossTrend

Moises · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0106.5L4.5W5.5L5.3W5.2W5.4W5.3L2.8L5.2W6.5W4.5L5.5W6.7L4.6W1.9L6.1L2018-112020-102022-062024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Gordon · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Thiago MoisesRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Nasrat HaqparastRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Mark MadsenRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Moises · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gauge YoungRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Jared GordonRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Trey OgdenRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · KO · R3
Mitch RamirezRating 5.5
KO/TKO
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News & Media

Jared Gordon · Thiago Moises
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