UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
1 Aug 2015
Heavyweight
VS
43%
Silva
57%
Palelei
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:41
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Palelei
This is a genuine toss-up — Silva at 43% vs Palelei at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Silva throws more volume but Palelei connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Silva's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Palelei has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Silva
Palelei
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
82"+
Reach
81"
46+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Silva
Palelei
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.4
20.5
47.0
Performance Avg
56.6
58
Quality of Victory
56
26
Momentum Score
52
Silva
Palelei
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.8
53%
Strike Accuracy
58%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
0
2
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
9Clinch0
1Ground0
Silva
Palelei
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Silva
Palelei
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/31 fights
Chin rating based on
7/27 fights
Silva
Palelei
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
52
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Silva
Palelei
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Silva
Palelei
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.7
0.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.1
SilvaPalelei
Strike Zones
Silva
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedPalelei
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Silva targets the head (75% of attacks) — Palelei absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Palelei targets the body (100% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Silva
RND
Palelei
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.8WinLossTrend
Palelei · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Silva · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Roy NelsonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Stefan StruveRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Mark HuntRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11
W · KO · R2
Soa PaleleiRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
L · KO · R1
Frank MirRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
Palelei · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
W · KO · R2
Walt HarrisRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping · 2014-11
L · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · 2014-06
W · KO · R1
Ruan PottsRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · KO · R1
Pat BarryRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot · 2013-12