METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Bantamweight
VS
47%
Costa
53%
Kelley
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:15
★ Official Result
Tony KelleywinsKO/TKOR2 · 4:15
def. Randy Costa · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Kelley
→
Actual result
Kelley wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Costa at 47% vs Kelley at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Risk flags
Costa's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CostaKelley
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Costa
Kelley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
70"
32+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Switch
Costa
Kelley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.9
28.4
49.3
Performance Avg
44.0
60
Quality of Victory
40
13
Momentum Score
69
Costa
Kelley
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
/ 10
6.0
/ 10
8.0
Style: Pressure
5.0
0.7
Style: Volume
5.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
20
3
Body
20
0
Leg
7
RangeRange
11Distance10
4Clinch14
0Ground23
Costa
Kelley
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Costa
Kelley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/10 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
Costa
Kelley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
13
69
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Costa
Kelley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Costa
Kelley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
CostaKelley
Strike Zones
Costa
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedKelley
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (80% of attacks) — Kelley absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Kelley targets the head (43% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Costa
RND
Kelley
0/0R00/0
Costa · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Guido CannettiSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
L · KO · R2
Tony KelleyKO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R2
Adrian YanezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
W · KO · R1
Journey NewsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Boston SalmonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
Kelley · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Adrian YanezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
W · KO · R2
Randy CostaKO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Ali AlQaisiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Kai Kamaka IIIDecision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08