UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Bantamweight
VS
47%
Costa
53%
Kelley
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:15
RC
Randy Costa
"The Zohan"
6 – 4
5'9"73" reachSwitch31 yrs3-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 25
TK
Tony Kelley
"Primetime"
8 – 3
Well-Rounded39 yrsSwitch70" reach5'9"
CFR 28

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kelley

This is a genuine toss-up — Costa at 47% vs Kelley at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Kelley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Costa's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Costa
Kelley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
70"
31+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Switch
Costa
Kelley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.9
28.4
49.3
Performance Avg
44.0
60
Quality of Victory
40
13
Momentum Score
69
Costa
Kelley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
3.2
49%
Strike Accuracy
51%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
20
3
Body
20
0
Leg
7
RangeRange
11Distance10
4Clinch14
0Ground23
Costa
Kelley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Costa
Kelley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/10 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
Costa
Kelley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
13
69
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Costa
Kelley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Costa
Kelley
Striking10.0 / 6.0Volume0.7 / 5.0Grappling0.0 / 1.2Wrestling0.0 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure8.0 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Costa
Strike Zones
Kelley
Costa
Attacking
12HEAD3BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD20BODY7LEGS47 absorbed
Kelley
Attacking
20HEAD20BODY7LEGS47 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD3BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (80% of attacks) — Kelley absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Kelley targets the head (43% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Costa
RND
Kelley
0/0R00/0

Costa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W4.2L2.8L1.5L2019-042019-102020-092021-072021-122022-10
WinLossTrend

Kelley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.6L4.5W5.2W2.9L2020-082020-102021-122022-06
WinLossTrend

Costa · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Guido CannettiRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
L · KO · R2
Tony KelleyRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
L · KO · R2
Adrian YanezRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
W · KO · R1
Journey NewsonRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Boston SalmonRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

Kelley · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Adrian YanezRating 2.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
W · KO · R2
Randy CostaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Ali AlQaisiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Kai Kamaka IIIRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08

News & Media

Randy Costa · Tony Kelley
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