METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Las Vegas, USA
22 Apr 2023
Heavyweight
VS
53%
Usman
47%
Tafa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Mohammed UsmanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Junior Tafa · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Usman
→
Actual result
Usman wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Usman at 53% vs Tafa at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Tafa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Risk flags
Tafa has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
UsmanTafa
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Usman
Tafa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
79"+
Reach
75"
37
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Usman
Tafa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.7
48.6
46.2
Performance Avg
48.3
33
Quality of Victory
58
83
Momentum Score
39
Usman
Tafa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
3.8
Style: Pressure
8.0
7.3
Style: Volume
0.7
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
7
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch6
1Ground0
Usman
Tafa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Usman
Tafa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
18
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/16 fights
Chin rating based on
9/12 fights
Usman
Tafa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
39
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Usman
Tafa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Usman
Tafa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
UsmanTafa
Strike Zones
Usman
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTafa
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Usman targets the head (100% of attacks) — Tafa absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Tafa targets the head (88% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Usman
RND
Tafa
0/0R00/0
Usman · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
Thomas PetersenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Mick ParkinDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Jake CollierDecision
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
W · Dec · R3
Junior TafaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
Tafa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Iwo BaraniewskiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Kevin ChristianKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Sub · R2
Billy ElekanaSubmission
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Sub · R2
Tuco TokkosSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Sean SharafKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10