UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Las Vegas, USA
22 Apr 2023
Heavyweight
VS
52%
Usman
48%
Tafa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Mohammed
Mohammed Usman
"The Motor"
12 – 4
6'2"79" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 55
Junior
Junior Tafa
"The Juggernaut"
7 – 5
Knockout Artist29 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'3"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Usman

This is a genuine toss-up — Usman at 52% vs Tafa at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Tafa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.

Tafa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Tafa has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Usman
Tafa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
79"+
Reach
75"
37
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Usman
Tafa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.7
51.3
46.2
Performance Avg
50.0
33
Quality of Victory
58
83
Momentum Score
39
Usman
Tafa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.9
44%
Strike Accuracy
59%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
7
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch6
1Ground0
Usman
Tafa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Usman
Tafa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
40
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/16 fights
Chin rating based on
8/12 fights
Usman
Tafa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
39
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
Usman
Tafa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Usman
Tafa
Striking3.8 / 10.0Volume7.3 / 0.8Grappling1.8 / 0.0Wrestling1.3 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.8 / 8.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
Usman
Strike Zones
Tafa
Usman
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Tafa
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Usman targets the head (100% of attacks) — Tafa absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Tafa targets the head (88% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Usman
RND
Tafa
0/0R00/0

Usman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W5.3W4.5W6.6L5.5L5.0W2022-082023-042023-092024-032024-072025-06
WinLossTrend

Tafa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0106.5L5.0W3.4L3.4L5.2W3.5L4.3L5.0W2023-042024-022024-102026-012026-05
WinLossTrend

Usman · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Hamdy AbdelwahabRating 5
Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Thomas PetersenRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Mick ParkinRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
W · Dec · R3
Junior TafaRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04

Tafa · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Kevin ChristianRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Sub · R2
Billy ElekanaRating 4.3
Submission
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Sub · R2
Tuco TokkosRating 3.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Sean SharafRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Sub · R1
Valter WalkerRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

News & Media

Mohammed Usman · Junior Tafa
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