UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Bantamweight
VS
24%
Paiva
76%
O'Malley
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:42
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: O'Malley
O'Malley is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
O'Malley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
O'Malley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
O'Malley has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Paiva
O'Malley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+72"
30+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Paiva
O'Malley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
65.3
38.1
Performance Avg
59.5
35
Quality of Victory
47
20
Momentum Score
95
Paiva
O'Malley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.3
37%
Strike Accuracy
62%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
28
3
Body
8
6
Leg
3
RangeRange
11Distance37
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Paiva
O'Malley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
1.1
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Paiva
O'Malley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/26 fights
Chin rating based on
16/22 fights
Paiva
O'Malley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
95
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Paiva
O'Malley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
55%
1
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Paiva
O'Malley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
PaivaO'Malley
Strike Zones
Paiva
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedO'Malley
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Paiva targets the legs (55% of attacks) — O'Malley absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯O'Malley targets the head (72% of attacks) — Paiva absorbs 72% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Paiva
RND
O'Malley
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Paiva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
O'Malley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Paiva · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergey MorozovRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
Sean O'MalleyRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Zhalgas ZhumagulovRating 4.5Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · KO · R2
Mark De La RosaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
O'Malley · Last 5
Upcoming
Aiemann ZahabiUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 5.8Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
L · Sub · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 4Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Dec · R5
Marlon VeraRating 5.3Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03