METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Bantamweight
VS
23%
Paiva
77%
O'Malley
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:42
★ Official Result
Sean O'MalleywinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:42
def. Raulian Paiva · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
O'Malley
→
Actual result
O'Malley wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
O'Malley is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
O'Malley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
O'Malley has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PaivaO'Malley
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Paiva
O'Malley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+72"
30+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Paiva
O'Malley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
66.2
38.1
Performance Avg
60.5
35
Quality of Victory
48
20
Momentum Score
95
Paiva
O'Malley
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
7.4
/ 10
3.6
Style: Pressure
6.5
6.2
Style: Volume
4.9
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
28
3
Body
8
6
Leg
3
RangeRange
11Distance37
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Paiva
O'Malley
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Paiva
O'Malley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/26 fights
Chin rating based on
16/22 fights
Paiva
O'Malley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
95
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Paiva
O'Malley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
58%
1
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Paiva
O'Malley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.4
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
PaivaO'Malley
Strike Zones
Paiva
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedO'Malley
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Paiva targets the legs (55% of attacks) — O'Malley absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯O'Malley targets the head (72% of attacks) — Paiva absorbs 72% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Paiva
RND
O'Malley
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Paiva · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergey MorozovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
Sean O'MalleyKO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Zhalgas ZhumagulovDecision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · KO · R2
Mark De La RosaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
O'Malley · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Aiemann ZahabiKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Song YadongDecision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
L · Sub · R3
Merab DvalishviliSubmission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliDecision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Dec · R5
Marlon VeraDecision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03