METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
Las Vegas, USA
9 Jul 2016
Welterweight
VS
30%
Hendricks
70%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kelvin GastelumwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Johny Hendricks · UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gastelum
→
Actual result
Gastelum wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Gastelum is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Gastelum throws more volume but Hendricks connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hendricks's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HendricksGastelum
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hendricks
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
69"
Reach
+71"
42
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Hendricks
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.8
41.4
48.2
Performance Avg
47.4
39
Quality of Victory
42
80
Momentum Score
28
Hendricks
Gastelum
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
1.3
49%
Strike Accuracy
43%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
30
3
Body
10
2
Leg
6
RangeRange
27Distance40
4Clinch6
0Ground0
Hendricks
Gastelum
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hendricks
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
38
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/26 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Hendricks
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
28
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Hendricks
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
36%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hendricks
Gastelum
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
HendricksGastelum
Strike Zones
Hendricks
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
46 absorbedGastelum
Attacking
46 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hendricks targets the head (84% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (65% of attacks) — Hendricks absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hendricks
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0
Hendricks · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Hendricks · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Paulo CostaRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · 2017-11
L · KO · R2
Tim BoetschRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Hector LombardRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · 2017-02
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12