UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Miami, USA
12 Apr 2025
Featherweight
VS
46%
Mitchell
54%
Silva
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Silva
This is a genuine toss-up — Mitchell at 46% vs Silva at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Silva has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Mitchell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mitchell
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
69"
31
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Mitchell
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
66.7
48.6
Performance Avg
61.7
31
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
87
Mitchell
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
2.5
55%
Strike Accuracy
57%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
9
5
Body
7
7
Leg
2
RangeRange
13Distance15
1Clinch2
0Ground1
Mitchell
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mitchell
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
7/20 fights
Mitchell
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
87
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · R3
Mitchell
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mitchell
Silva
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
MitchellSilva
Strike Zones
Mitchell
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedSilva
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mitchell targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (50% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mitchell
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Mitchell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Mitchell · Last 5
Upcoming
Victor HenryUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R2
Jean SilvaRating 4.3Submission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R3
Kron GracieRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Silva · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 5.9Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
L · KO · R2
Diego LopesRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Sub · R2
Bryce MitchellRating 6.3Submission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Melsik BaghdasaryanRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · R3
Drew DoberRating 5.7UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07