★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Salt Lake City, USA
5 Oct 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
59%
Pereira
41%
Jr.
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 4 · 4:32
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pereira
This is a genuine toss-up — Pereira at 59% vs Jr. at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pereira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Pereira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Jr. has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pereira
Jr.
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
79"+
Reach
76"
38
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pereira
Jr.
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
76.5
53.7
76.4
Performance Avg
52.0
72
Quality of Victory
48
78
Momentum Score
77
Pereira
Jr.
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.4
68%
Strike Accuracy
42%
9.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.2
8 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
52
Head
9
7
Body
2
4
Leg
4
RangeRange
60Distance14
3Clinch1
0Ground0
Pereira
Jr.
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.5
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pereira
Jr.
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/16 fights
Chin rating based on
18/22 fights
Pereira
Jr.
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
77
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Pereira
Jr.
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
70%
8
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pereira
Jr.
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.2
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
PereiraJr.
Strike Zones
Pereira
Attacking
63 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedJr.
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
63 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pereira targets the head (83% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Jr. targets the head (60% of attacks) — Pereira absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pereira
RND
Jr.
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pereira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Jr. · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Pereira · Last 5
Upcoming
Ciryl GaneUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Magomed AnkalaevRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · KO · R4
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Jiri ProchazkaRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
Jr. · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jiri ProchazkaRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Jamahal HillRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R4
Alex PereiraRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R3
Anthony SmithRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08