METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Salt Lake City, USA
5 Oct 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
58%
Pereira
42%
Jr.
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 4 · 4:32
★ Official Result
Alex PereirawinsKO/TKOR4 · 4:32
def. Khalil Rountree Jr. · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pereira
→
Actual result
Pereira wins
KO/TKO · R4
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Pereira at 58% vs Jr. at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pereira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Risk flags
Pereira's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jr. has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PereiraJr.
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Pereira
Jr.
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
79"+
Reach
76"
39
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pereira
Jr.
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
73.3
53.7
73.8
Performance Avg
52.0
72
Quality of Victory
48
78
Momentum Score
77
Pereira
Jr.
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.5
/ 10
8.2
/ 10
7.9
Style: Pressure
6.7
3.1
Style: Volume
3.6
8 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
52
Head
9
7
Body
2
4
Leg
4
RangeRange
60Distance14
3Clinch1
0Ground0
Pereira
Jr.
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pereira
Jr.
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/16 fights
Chin rating based on
18/22 fights
Pereira
Jr.
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
77
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Pereira
Jr.
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
70%
8
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pereira
Jr.
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.2
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
PereiraJr.
Strike Zones
Pereira
Attacking
63 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedJr.
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
63 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pereira targets the head (83% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Jr. targets the head (60% of attacks) — Pereira absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pereira
RND
Jr.
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pereira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Ciryl GaneKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Magomed AnkalaevKO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevDecision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · KO · R4
Khalil Rountree Jr.KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Jiri ProchazkaKO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
Jr. · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jiri ProchazkaKO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R5
Jamahal HillDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R4
Alex PereiraKO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · KO · R3
Anthony SmithKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · KO · R1
Chris DaukausKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08