UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2015
Bantamweight
VS
79%
Garbrandt
21%
Briones
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Garbrandt
Garbrandt is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Garbrandt has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Garbrandt's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Briones has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Garbrandt
Briones
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
65"
Reach
+69"
34+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Garbrandt
Briones
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.6
15.5
51.6
Performance Avg
37.7
47
Quality of Victory
50
97
Momentum Score
33
Garbrandt
Briones
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
38%
7.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
7
1
Body
5
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
25Distance11
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Garbrandt
Briones
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Garbrandt
Briones
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
62
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/22 fights
Chin rating based on
5/24 fights
Garbrandt
Briones
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
33
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Garbrandt
Briones
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garbrandt
Briones
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
GarbrandtBriones
Strike Zones
Garbrandt
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedBriones
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garbrandt targets the head (93% of attacks) — Briones absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Briones targets the head (58% of attacks) — Garbrandt absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garbrandt
RND
Briones
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Garbrandt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Briones · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Garbrandt · Last 5
Upcoming
Adrian YanezUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Xiao LongRating 5.3Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Sub · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8Submission
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Brian KelleherRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Briones · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Frankie SaenzRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · 2018-05
L · Sub · R1
Rani YahyaRating 1.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · KO · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Cody GarbrandtRating 6.6Decision
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · Sub · R2
Guido CannettiRating 5.2Submission
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt · 2014-11