UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Las Vegas, USA
1 Oct 2022
Middleweight
VS
27%
Jotko
73%
Allen
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:17
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Allen
Allen is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Allen has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Allen has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Jotko's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Allen has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jotko
Allen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
77"+
Reach
75"
36
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Jotko
Allen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.7
61.8
42.8
Performance Avg
56.8
28
Quality of Victory
43
60
Momentum Score
88
Jotko
Allen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
38%
Strike Accuracy
53%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance2
0Clinch0
3Ground1
Jotko
Allen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.9
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jotko
Allen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
12 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
19/33 fights
Jotko
Allen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
88
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Jotko
Allen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
9%
64%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
7
10
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jotko
Allen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.9
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
JotkoAllen
Strike Zones
Jotko
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedAllen
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jotko targets the head (100% of attacks) — Allen absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Allen targets the head (33% of attacks) — Jotko absorbs 33% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jotko
RND
Allen
0/0R00/0
Jotko · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Allen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Jotko · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Gerald MeerschaertRating 5.6Decision
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Allen · Last 5
Upcoming
Edmen ShahbazyanUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R4
Reinier de RidderRating 6.4KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.9Decision
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L · Dec · R3
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