UFC - Ultimate Ultimate '95
Denver, USA
16 Dec 1995
Open Weight
VS
55%
Severn
45%
Varelans
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:01
DS
Dan Severn
"The Beast"
101 – 19
6'2"Southpaw67 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 22
PV
Paul Varelans
"The Polar Bear"
9 – 9
Well-Rounded56 yrsOrthodox6'8"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Severn

This is a genuine toss-up — Severn at 55% vs Varelans at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Severn has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Striking split: Varelans throws more volume but Severn connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Severn's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Varelans has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Severn
Varelans
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'8"
67
Age
+56
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Severn
Varelans
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.1
18.1
66.1
Performance Avg
50.6
64
Quality of Victory
51
65
Momentum Score
59
Severn
Varelans
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.7
59%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Severn
Varelans
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
5.2
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
3.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
5.6
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
5
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Severn
Varelans
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
22
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/120 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Severn
Varelans
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R2
W · Dec · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Severn
Varelans
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
75%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Severn
Varelans
Striking1.4 / 6.0Volume4.0 / 3.0Grappling5.2 / 2.6Wrestling3.7 / 1.8Submission5.6 / 2.5Pressure6.0 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
5.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
Severn
Strike Zones
Varelans
Severn
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Varelans
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Varelans targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Severn absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Severn
RND
Varelans
0/0R00/0

Severn · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.7
0105.0W5.0W1.5L5.0W4.0W5.0W1.5L5.0W4.0W4.2W4.5W1.5L1.5L1994-121995-041995-122000-09
WinLossTrend

Varelans · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.1
0105.0W1.5L5.0W5.0W1.5L1.5L4.0W1.5L1995-071995-091995-091996-021996-12
WinLossTrend

Severn · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Pedro RizzoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 27: Ultimate Bad Boyz · 2000-09
L · Sub · R1
Mark ColemanRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 12: Judgement Day · 1997-02
W · Dec · R3
Ken ShamrockRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 9: Motor City Madness · 1996-05
W · Dec · R2
Oleg TaktarovRating 4.2
Decision
UFC - Ultimate Ultimate '95 · 1995-12
W · Dec · R1
David AbbottRating 4
Decision
UFC - Ultimate Ultimate '95 · 1995-12

Varelans · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Kimo LeopoldoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC - Ultimate Ultimate '96 · 1996-12
W · Dec · R1
Joe MoreiraRating 4
Decision
UFC 8: David vs Goliath · 1996-02
L · Sub · R1
Dan SevernRating 1.5
Submission
UFC - Ultimate Ultimate '95 · 1995-12
L · KO · R1
Marco RuasRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 7: The Brawl in Buffalo · 1995-09
W · Sub · R1
Mark HallRating 5
Submission
UFC 7: The Brawl in Buffalo · 1995-09

News & Media

Dan Severn · Paul Varelans
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