UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
19 Feb 2022
Bantamweight
VS
92%
Bautista
8%
Perrin
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Bautista
Bautista is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Bautista has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.
Striking split: Bautista throws more volume but Perrin connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Bautista's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bautista
Perrin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
69"+
Reach
67"
32
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Switch
Bautista
Perrin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.7
5.0
54.6
Performance Avg
0.0
39
Quality of Victory
0
73
Momentum Score
0
Bautista
Perrin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.7
52%
Strike Accuracy
58%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
0
4
Body
2
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance3
13Clinch1
4Ground0
Bautista
Perrin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.6
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bautista
Perrin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
3/17 fights
Bautista
Perrin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Bautista
Perrin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bautista
Perrin
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BautistaPerrin
Strike Zones
Bautista
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedPerrin
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bautista targets the head (65% of attacks) — Perrin absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Perrin targets the body (50% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bautista
RND
Perrin
0/0R00/0
Bautista · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Perrin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Bautista · Last 5
Upcoming
Cory SandhagenUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
Perrin · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Raul Rosas Jr.Rating 3.1Submission
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
AoriqilengRating 6.3Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · 2022-02