UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
21 Jan 2023
Lightweight
VS
40%
Moises
60%
Costa
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:05
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Costa
Costa holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Moises has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Moises's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Costa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Moises
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
31
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Moises
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
59.4
42.7
Performance Avg
53.2
38
Quality of Victory
42
39
Momentum Score
84
Moises
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.4
44%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
1
2
Body
2
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
3Distance7
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Moises
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Moises
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/29 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Moises
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Moises
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
57%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moises
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
MoisesCosta
Strike Zones
Moises
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedCosta
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moises targets the head (85% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Moises absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moises
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
Moises · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Moises · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gauge YoungRating 6.1Decision
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L · KO · R1
Jared GordonRating 1.9KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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Costa · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
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W · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 5.7KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
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