UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
Los Angeles, USA
29 Dec 2018
Bantamweight
VS
44%
Kelleher
56%
Jackson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:40
Brian
Brian Kelleher
"Boom"
24 – 16
5'6"66" reachSwitch39 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Montel
Montel Jackson
"Quik"
15 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide34 yrsSouthpaw75" reach5'10"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Jackson

This is a genuine toss-up — Kelleher at 44% vs Jackson at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Kelleher throws more volume but Jackson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Kelleher's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Kelleher
Jackson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'10"
66"
Reach
+75"
39
Age
+34
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Kelleher
Jackson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.8
52.4
44.5
Performance Avg
51.6
43
Quality of Victory
40
61
Momentum Score
48
Kelleher
Jackson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
6
0
Body
2
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance7
0Clinch1
0Ground2
Kelleher
Jackson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelleher
Jackson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
92
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/40 fights
Chin rating based on
13/19 fights
Kelleher
Jackson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
48
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Kelleher
Jackson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
44%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kelleher
Jackson
Striking3.4 / 4.7Volume3.9 / 5.8Grappling3.9 / 2.2Wrestling2.7 / 1.6Submission3.8 / 1.1Pressure5.8 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Kelleher
Strike Zones
Jackson
Kelleher
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY6LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Jackson
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY6LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kelleher targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Jackson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Jackson targets the head (60% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kelleher
RND
Jackson
0/0R00/0

Kelleher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.0W2.3L5.5W4.5W4.0L2.4L5.8W5.2W5.5L5.0W6.2L4.5W4.5W2.8L2.6L2.6L1.7L2017-062018-122021-022023-122024-07
WinLossTrend

Jackson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0106.2L5.3W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W5.4W6.0W5.8W6.6L6.3L2018-082020-072023-042026-04
WinLossTrend

Kelleher · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7
Submission
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Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6
KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

Jackson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3
Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Daniel MarcosRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Da'Mon BlackshearRating 6
KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Rani YahyaRating 5.4
KO/TKO
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News & Media

Brian Kelleher · Montel Jackson
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