UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
Fairfax, USA
4 Apr 2015
Women's Bantamweight
VS
21%
Carmouche
79%
Murphy
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
LC
Liz Carmouche
"Girlrilla"
13 – 7
5'6"66" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
Lauren
Lauren Murphy
"Lucky"
16 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'5"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Murphy

Murphy is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Murphy throws more volume but Carmouche connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Murphy has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Carmouche
Murphy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'5"
66"
Reach
+67"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carmouche
Murphy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
51.7
38.6
Performance Avg
41.9
31
Quality of Victory
34
40
Momentum Score
87
Carmouche
Murphy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.5
52%
Strike Accuracy
43%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
6
0
Body
0
2
Leg
14
RangeRange
2Distance4
2Clinch11
0Ground5
Carmouche
Murphy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Carmouche
Murphy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
15/23 fights
Carmouche
Murphy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
87
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Carmouche
Murphy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
38%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carmouche
Murphy
Striking3.0 / 3.6Volume7.4 / 6.1Grappling1.9 / 2.5Wrestling1.3 / 1.8Submission0.0 / 1.3Pressure2.9 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Carmouche
Strike Zones
Murphy
Carmouche
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY14LEGS20 absorbed
Murphy
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY14LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Carmouche targets the head (50% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Murphy targets the legs (70% of attacks) — Carmouche absorbs 70% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carmouche
RND
Murphy
0/0R00/0

Carmouche · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0101.5L6.0W5.5L6.4L5.3W4.8W5.5L4.5W4.5W6.9L2013-022014-042017-122019-08
WinLossTrend

Murphy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.5L5.5W5.8L4.5W5.5L5.5W4.9W4.5W5.2W4.7W4.7L5.4W6.3L6.3L2014-082017-122020-062022-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Carmouche · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
W · Dec · R3
Lucie PudilovaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Alexis DavisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
Katlyn CerminaraRating 4.8
Decision
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11

Murphy · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Miesha TateRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · KO · R4
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 4.7
KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
W · Dec · R3
Joanne WoodRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06

News & Media

Liz Carmouche · Lauren Murphy
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