METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Mexico City, Mexico
21 Sept 2019
Light Heavyweight
VS
1%
Moreira
99%
Craig
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:19
★ Official Result
Paul CraigwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:19
def. Vinicius Moreira · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Craig
→
Actual result
Craig wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Craig is a strong favourite at 99% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Craig has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 52 points.
Risk flags
Moreira's chin rating of 22 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Craig has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MoreiraCraig
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Moreira
Craig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
37+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moreira
Craig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
0.6
49.1
0.0
Performance Avg
50.4
0
Quality of Victory
52
0
Momentum Score
46
Moreira
Craig
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
0.0
Style: Pressure
8.4
0.0
Style: Volume
0.9
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
16
0
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch6
0Ground11
Moreira
Craig
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
5.3
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
6.7
0
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moreira
Craig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
22
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/14 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Moreira
Craig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
46
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Moreira
Craig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
6
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moreira
Craig
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
MoreiraCraig
Strike Zones
Moreira
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedCraig
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moreira targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Craig targets the head (89% of attacks) — Moreira absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moreira
RND
Craig
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Moreira · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Ike VillanuevaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
L · Sub · R1
Paul CraigSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
L · KO · R1
Alonzo MenifieldKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
Craig · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Upcoming
Rodolfo BellatoUFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalDecision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoKO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11