METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Mexico City, Mexico
21 Sept 2019
Light Heavyweight
VS
1%
Moreira
99%
Craig
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:19
★ Official Result
Paul CraigwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:19
def. Vinicius Moreira · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Craig
→
Actual result
Craig wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Craig is a strong favourite at 99% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Craig has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 52 points.
Craig has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Moreira's chin rating of 22 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Craig has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MoreiraCraig
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Moreira
Craig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
37+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moreira
Craig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
0.6
49.1
0.0
Performance Avg
50.4
0
Quality of Victory
52
0
Momentum Score
46
Moreira
Craig
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.5
46%
Strike Accuracy
47%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
16
0
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch6
0Ground11
Moreira
Craig
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Moreira
Craig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
22
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/14 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Moreira
Craig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
46
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Moreira
Craig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
6
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moreira
Craig
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
MoreiraCraig
Strike Zones
Moreira
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedCraig
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moreira targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Craig targets the head (89% of attacks) — Moreira absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moreira
RND
Craig
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Moreira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.4WinLossTrend
Craig · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Moreira · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Ike VillanuevaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
L · Sub · R1
Paul CraigRating 2.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
L · KO · R1
Alonzo MenifieldRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
Craig · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3KO/TKO
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Upcoming
Rodolfo BellatoUFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalRating 7.2Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 4.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11