UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka
Dublin, Ireland
24 Oct 2015
Flyweight
VS
41%
Holohan
59%
Smolka
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:09
PH
Paddy Holohan
"The Hooligan"
12 – 2
5'10"69" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
LS
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
17 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'9"
CFR 27

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Smolka

This is a genuine toss-up — Holohan at 41% vs Smolka at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Smolka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Smolka has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Holohan
Smolka
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
69"+
Reach
68"
38
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holohan
Smolka
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.2
26.6
44.8
Performance Avg
46.5
35
Quality of Victory
46
74
Momentum Score
60
Holohan
Smolka
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.2
40%
Strike Accuracy
51%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
36
2
Body
4
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance5
0Clinch0
2Ground35
Holohan
Smolka
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holohan
Smolka
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
12
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/14 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Holohan
Smolka
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
60
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Holohan
Smolka
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
75%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Holohan
Smolka
Striking1.2 / 5.9Volume6.5 / 2.9Grappling4.3 / 2.6Wrestling3.0 / 1.8Submission3.3 / 2.5Pressure4.1 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Holohan
Strike Zones
Smolka
Holohan
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
36HEAD4BODY0LEGS40 absorbed
Smolka
Attacking
36HEAD4BODY0LEGS40 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Holohan targets the head (40% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Smolka targets the head (90% of attacks) — Holohan absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Holohan
RND
Smolka
0/0R00/0

Holohan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W5.5L4.5W4.5W2.8L2014-072014-102015-012015-072015-10
WinLossTrend

Smolka · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.2W5.2W2.4L5.5L5.6L5.7L5.9W1.7L5.0W1.5L5.2W1.5L4.8L2014-012016-072018-112021-122022-05
WinLossTrend

Holohan · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Louis SmolkaRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Vaughan LeeRating 4.5
Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Shane HowellRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Chris KeladesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Sub · R1
Josh SampoRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · 2014-07

Smolka · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
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News & Media

Paddy Holohan · Louis Smolka
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